Analysts on Nintendo Switch 2 Pre-order Turmoil: 'Unhinged Times' Due to Tariffs

This week has been a whirlwind for U.S. gamers, starting with the full reveal of the Nintendo Switch 2, which was met with both excitement and disappointment over its $450 price tag and $80 for Mario Kart Tour. The roller coaster continued as Nintendo announced a delay in pre-orders to assess the impact of the Trump Administration's sudden, sweeping tariffs on international trade. These developments have left gamers wondering about the future pricing of the Nintendo Switch 2.

We've previously explored the reasons behind the high cost of the Nintendo Switch 2 and the potential industry-wide effects of these new tariffs. However, the burning question now is: What will Nintendo do? Will the Nintendo Switch 2 be even pricier when pre-orders eventually open?

Typically, to answer such pressing questions about the video game industry, I consult a panel of expert analysts. While they can't predict the future with certainty, their insights are usually backed by solid data and a consensus on likely outcomes. This week, I've already relied on their expertise twice. But this time, something unprecedented occurred: every analyst I spoke to was stumped.

Despite their expertise, the analysts could only offer guesses about Nintendo's next move. Some predicted a price increase, while others believed Nintendo would hold the line. However, every prediction came with a heavy caveat emphasizing the current chaos and unpredictability. Here's a summary of what the analysts had to say:

Sky-High Switch

Dr. Serkan Toto, CEO of Kantan Games, initially thought it was too late for Nintendo to raise prices after the announcement. However, the delay in pre-orders has changed his perspective. He now believes Nintendo might not have a choice but to increase prices for the system, games, and accessories. "It is very difficult to predict, but Nintendo will likely take a few days to run simulations and then announce hikes," Toto said. "I hope I am wrong, but if sustained, these sky-high tariffs leave them no choice. Would you be surprised now to see Switch 2 hit US$500 for the base model? I wouldn't."

Toto also questioned Nintendo's timing, wondering why they didn't wait for the U.S. to resolve the tariff situation before announcing prices.

Mat Piscatella, senior analyst at Circana, echoed the sentiment that the tariffs' breadth and depth were unexpected. He believes that Nintendo, like other businesses reliant on international supply chains, will need to reassess its pricing strategy. "Every reasonable and responsible business that relies on international supply chains will be reevaluating its US consumer pricing at this point. They have to," Piscatella stated. He also noted that the U.S. might join regions with historically higher game prices due to these tariffs.

Manu Rosier, director of market analysis at Newzoo, predicts that hardware prices will rise, though he believes digital distribution might mitigate the impact on software prices. "While physical versions might be subject to tariffs, the growing dominance and lower cost of digital distribution would likely limit any broader effect," Rosier explained. However, he cautioned that substantial tariff increases could lead to higher retail prices for hardware.

Holding the Line

Joost van Dreunen, NYU Stern professor and author of SuperJoost Playlist, acknowledges the possibility of a price increase but believes Nintendo will try hard to maintain the announced price. "I believe the volatility from the Trump tariffs was already considered in the Switch 2's $449.99 pricing," he said. Van Dreunen noted that Nintendo's supply chain restructuring might help absorb potential costs, but the unpredictable nature of tariffs could force a reassessment.

Piers Harding-Rolls, games researcher at Ampere Analysis, agrees that Nintendo faces a dilemma. Having announced the launch price, raising it further could lead to consumer backlash. "The extent of the tariffs and its impact on Vietnamese exports are really bad news for Nintendo," he said. Harding-Rolls believes Nintendo will delay any price changes until at least 2026, hoping for a resolution in the meantime.

Living in Unhinged Times

Rhys Elliott, games analyst at Alinea Analytics, predicts higher prices for both Nintendo hardware and software due to the tariffs. He also pointed out Nintendo's strategy of offering cheaper digital editions in certain markets to encourage digital purchases. "It seems the lower prices in other markets were to nudge Switch 2 buyers to digital," Elliott said. He warned that the chaotic tariff situation could lead to broader economic harm, with consumers ultimately bearing the cost.

Elliott painted a grim picture of the potential impact on the games industry, aligning with warnings from the Entertainment Software Association. He criticized the tariffs as detrimental to consumers and the economy, driven by what he described as "unhinged times driven by an unhinged man (and other forces)." Elliott emphasized that such policies contradict core economic principles and could lead to a weaker, poorer nation.

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